Brasileirão Série A · regular season - 19Thu 16 Jul, 22:30 UTC

Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama

Full time

1 – 0

Vitoria win

Result & over/under verdicts are judged on the 90' score only.

Result: ✓ called it (favored Vitoria win 50%)O/U 2.5: ✗ (1 goals)BTTS: ✗ (no)

Vitoria xG

1.49

Vasco DA Gama xG

1.08

✦ Adjusted for team news

high confidence

Vitoria's defense is weakened by injuries to starting right-back Nathan Mendes and centre-back Camutanga, while Vasco DA Gama faces significant challenges with key starting midfielders Mateus Cocão, Jair, and Hugo Moura absent, alongside starting right-back Puma Rodríguez, compounded by poor recent

Match result (adjusted)

50%

25%

Vitoria win50%

Draw25%

Vasco DA Gama win25%

Total goals (adjusted)

51%

49%

Over 2.551%

Under 2.549%

Both teams to score (adjusted)

53%

47%

Yes53%

No47%

Vitoria

ATK -5%DEF -10%

LWWLWL

• Nathan Mendes RB · starter · injured
• Camutanga CB · starter · injured
• Riccieli CB · rotation · injured
• Mateus Silva RB · rotation · injured
• Edu CB · rotation · injured
• Dudu DM · rotation · injured
• Rúben Ismael DM · rotation · injured
• Lucas Braga LW · rotation · injured

Vasco DA Gama

ATK -10%DEF -15%

LLLDWL

Researched by gemini-2.5-flash. AI adjustments are bounded to ±20% of the model and can be wrong — treat as informed context, not fact.

Base model (before team news)

Match result (1X2)

47%

26%

27%

Vitoria win47%

Draw26%

Vasco DA Gama win27%

Total goals

47%

53%

Over 2.547%

Under 2.553%

Both teams to score

Scoreline probabilities

Most likely score: Vitoria 1–1 Vasco DA Gama (12%)

home goals \ away goals	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	8	4	2	0	0
1	11	12	7	2	1	0
2