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Football match probabilities, from our own model
We fit a Poisson goals model on seasons of results to estimate every team's attack and defense strength, then compute win / draw / win and over/under 2.5 goals probabilities for upcoming fixtures. No bookmaker odds — these are our numbers.
See upcoming predictions →Match result
Home win, draw, or away win probabilities from the full scoreline distribution.
Total goals
Over 2.5 and under 2.5 goals, read off the same model.
Expected goals
Each team's model-estimated goal expectancy for the fixture.