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FIFA World CupSat 11 Jul, 21:00 UTC
Neutral venue — no home advantage applied.
Norway vs England
Norway xG
1.38
England xG
1.42
✦ Adjusted for team news
high confidenceEngland's defense is weakened by key absences and recent concessions, while Norway's attack is significantly boosted by Erling Haaland's exceptional form and high motivation, despite some lingering concerns about defensive solidity and recent squad illness.
Match result (adjusted)
41%
23%
36%
Norway win41%
Draw23%
England win36%
Total goals (adjusted)
63%
37%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Norway
ATK +10%DEF -5%
Strong attacking form, high motivation, recent illness concerns dismissed.
- • David Møller Wolfe (doubtful - injury)
- • Jørgen Strand Larsen (recovered from fever, but recent illness)
- • Marcus Holmgren Pedersen (recovered from illness, but recent illness)
England
ATK +5%DEF -10%
Strong attacking form, defensive concerns due to absences and recent concessions.
- • Jarell Quansah (suspended)
- • Jordan Henderson (injured - broken arm)
- • Tino Livramento (injured - calf surgery)
Researched by gemini-2.5-flash. AI adjustments are bounded to ±20% of the model and can be wrong — treat as informed context, not fact.
Base model (before team news)
Match result (1X2)
36%
25%
38%
Norway win36%
Draw25%
England win38%
Total goals
53%
47%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Scoreline probabilities
Most likely score: Norway 1–1 England (12%)
| home goals \ away goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
↓ Norway goalsEngland goals →